نویسنده
استادیار گروه مهندسی صنایع، گروه مهندسی صنایع، دانشکده مهندسی، دانشگاه خیام، مشهد، ایران
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسنده [English]
Decision-making is one of the most important tasks of managers, which is sometimes taken by majority vote. This method is also done at the national level and some choices are made based on it. But to enter into this decision, a condition based on making the right decision has not been calculated. The purpose of this study is to calculate a specific condition for participating in decision-making based on the majority of votes. Which allows those whose presence increases the likelihood of making the right decision. To obtain this condition, we considered n-member communities and calculated the probability of a participatory correct decision for different values of the probability of the right decision of the members of the community (p). Simulation and solution with MATLAB showed that if the probability of making the right decision by each person is 50%, in making a decision with a majority of votes, 50% of the right decision is made. If the probability of making the right decision in each person is less than 50%, with the increase of decision makers, the probability of making the right decision tends to zero. As P decreases, this occurs in a smaller population. If the probability of each person in making the right decision is more than 50%, with increasing population, the probability of making the right decision tends to 100%, and with increasing P in the less population it happens. Therefore, before making a decision based on a majority of votes, the possibility of the right decision of the participants should be considered. Only if the probability of making the right decision by each person is more than 50%, their participation will increase the probability of making the right decision in majority of vote, which can be considered as a borderline for being expert.
کلیدواژهها [English]
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