نوع مقاله : مقاله مستخرج از رساله دکتری
1 دانشجوی دکتری، گروه مدیریت بازرگانی، واحد سمنان، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، سمنان، ایران.
2 استادیار گروه مدیریت، واحد تهران شرق، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران.
3 دانشیار گروه مدیریت صنعتی، واحد سمنان، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، سمنان، ایران.
عنوان مقاله [English]
One of the mysteries that has always been focused on in international economic studies is the ability to predict exchange rates. The existing perception in the past decades has always been based on the fact that economic models have been the most basic tools for predicting this matter, while the predictions made on this basis have always faced many gaps. Hence, the prediction of exchange rate fluctuations in Iran has always been a fundamental challenge for investors and economic activists, and also in the studies conducted in this direction, less has been focused on the field of behavioral finance and its combination with rational approaches to solve this issue. Therefore, in the current research, an attempt has been made to provide a model with greater explanatory power by using the integrated approach of behavioral finance and classical financial approaches to realize this. In this regard, a model based on the systemic dynamics approach has been presented, considering the impact of psychological, political and economic variables. The results obtained from the research indicate that on average, each of the four situations of widespread prosperity, boom of behavioral trends, stagnation of behavioral trends and widespread recession can be 5.37%, 4.31%, 3% and 2.4% respectively. Reduce the percentage of behavioral distortions in the currency market.