Journal of Intelligent Strategic Management

Journal of Intelligent Strategic Management

Foresight of the Life Insurance Market in Iran Using a Data-Driven Approach: Integrating Business Performance Indicators and Artificial Intelligence Algorithms

Articles in Press

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
Abbas Eslami 1
Manouchehr Ansari 2
Ezatollah Abbasian 3
1 PhD Candidate in Business Administration, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
2 Associate Professor, Department of Marketing Management and Business Strategy, School of Business Administration, College of Management, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
3 Professor, Department of Financial Engineering, School of Management, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
10.87453/bumara.2026.373601.4601
Abstract
The life insurance market in Iran has faced increasing uncertainty in recent years due to economic volatility, shifting customer behavior, and the growing need for digital transformation. This study aims to explore the future of this market and develop a strategic decision-making framework by forecasting future trends based on key business performance indicators and artificial intelligence algorithms. The research adopts a mixed exploratory–predictive approach conducted in two phases. In the qualitative phase, key performance indicators were identified through semi-structured interviews with 15 industry experts and analyzed using three-stage coding. Subsequently, critical uncertainties were determined through cross-impact analysis, leading to the development of four future scenarios. In the quantitative phase, historical data were modeled using artificial neural networks, support vector machines, and decision trees. The results indicate that artificial neural networks provide superior predictive accuracy. Findings reveal that under the optimistic scenario, the market is expected to experience significant growth in profitability, customer acquisition, and sales (up to 86%), whereas pessimistic and digital stagnation scenarios indicate substantial declines (up to −36%). Moreover, indicators such as customer satisfaction, market share, and loss ratio exhibit varying dynamics across scenarios. The results highlight the critical role of digitalization and service quality in shaping the future of the life insurance market. This study contributes by integrating scenario analysis with artificial intelligence techniques to enhance strategic foresight and decision-making in the insurance industry.
Keywords
Foresight
Life Insurance
Artificial Intelligence
Artificial Neural Network
Scenario Analysis
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Journal of Intelligent Strategic Management

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 01 April 2026