Journal of Intelligent Strategic Management

Journal of Intelligent Strategic Management

Economic Resilience and Sustainable Industrial Development: Redefining Value Chain Strategies in Iran

Articles in Press

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
Meisam Bashiri 1
Seyyed Hossein Paryab 2
1 Ph.D. Candidate, Faculty Member, Institute for Trade Studies and Research, Tehran, Iran.
2 Ph.D. Candidate, Researcher, Institute for Trade Studies and Research, Tehran, Iran.
10.87453/bumara.2026.373601.911
Abstract
Purpose: This research aims to design a comprehensive and integrated industrial policy model for the Iranian economy to overcome the failures of past policies and simultaneously address crises stemming from dual environmental pressures (e.g., the water crisis and severe energy imbalances) alongside escalating geopolitical sanctions.
Methodology: The study employed a sequential exploratory mixed-methods design (qualitative-quantitative). In the qualitative phase, a conceptual model was developed using a grounded theory strategy based on interviews with 18 experts (policymakers, academic professors, and executives of core industries). In the quantitative phase, which involved 384 senior managers, the causal relationships among variables were tested and weighted using the Fuzzy DEMATEL technique.
Findings: The analytical results indicated that "institutional requirements" (such as regulatory transparency and anti-rent-seeking measures) constitute the strongest causal (influencing) variable within the system. Conversely, the dimensions of "resilience" (foreign exchange diversification and technological localization) and "sustainability" (energy efficiency and water footprint management) act as effect (influenced) variables, the success of which directly depends on structural reforms and mission-oriented policies.
Originality/Value: By integrating resilience (antifragile supply chains) and sustainability (circular economy) approaches within the context of a heavily sanctioned economy, this paper contributes a novel framework to the global literature on next-generation industrial policy, transcending traditional market-failure compensation approaches.
Practical Implications: Macroeconomic policymakers and responsible ministries can utilize this conceptual and mathematical model to redesign incentives (e.g., conditional allocation of energy subsidies based on resilience enhancement), fundamentally restructure spatial planning (e.g., relocating water-intensive industries to coastal regions), and foster regional value chain diplomacy.
Keywords
Mission-oriented industrial policy
Economic resilience
Sustainable development
Fuzzy DEMATEL
Value chain
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Journal of Intelligent Strategic Management

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 09 August 2026