نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
دانشیار اقتصاد، گروه مدیریت دولتی، دانشکده مدیریت دانشگاه تهران، تهران.
عنوان مقاله [English]
Background: Life expectancy and its changes are crucial for anticipating and planning for changing age structures, resource and long term healthcare, environmental and economic landscapes, society, private-sector annuities, and government as they affect, among others, the old-age dependency ratio, social security, as well as pensions, insurance industry, disability benefits, and healthcare systemDecreasing the total fertility rate (TFR) below the population replacement level is one of the challenges that have occurred in recent years in many countries around the world. This event has many consequences for the future population structure of the world, which one of the most significant outcomes is the increase in the dependency rate in societies.
Methods: The paper starts by answering the question of what factors affect the declining in TFR below the replacement level? In the present study, data from the World Bank during the period 1964-2020 was used to identify the countries with TFR below the replacement level (2.1). The results are estimated by logistic regression model.
Results: The results show that child mortality and women's economic participation rate in labor force are the most important factors in reducing TFR below replacement level.
Conclusion: Despite the impact of women's economic participation rates on the labor market, this does not affect the continuation of this incident. Also, the results of this study provide evidence to validate the theory of price and population transfer time.