Land subsidence in alluvial aquifer systems results from declining pore-water pressure and compaction of compressible strata. When it coincides with urban expansion, it can affect infrastructure resilience and the spatial direction of development. This study examines the relationship between groundwater decline, subsidence susceptibility, and urban physical growth in District 22 of Tehran, reframing the thesis results within the context of sustainable urban management. The research uses a descriptive-analytical design and secondary analysis of piezometric records for 2003–2024, spatial layers, and susceptibility maps produced by integrating geographic information systems with the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Fuzzy Delphi AHP. The assessed criteria include groundwater-level decline, lithology, slope, elevation, distance to faults and drainage, precipitation, surface curvature, and the Topographic Wetness Index. The thesis reports declining groundwater levels in the monitored piezometers and a relative concentration of high and very-high susceptibility classes across lowland settings. In the AHP map, the high and very-high classes together account for 39.8% of the reported study area; the corresponding share in the Fuzzy Delphi map is 31.6%. Their spatial overlap with portions of transport, sports, service, and residential land uses signals a need to prioritize monitoring and review development controls. However, spatial overlap alone does not prove realized damage or statistical causality. Since the thesis does not report independent InSAR displacement data for validation, the outputs are interpreted as relative susceptibility maps rather than measurements of subsidence rates. The paper therefore recommends groundwater-demand management, integrated ground-motion monitoring, pre-permit hazard assessment, and development control in sensitive zones.