مدیریت استراتژیک هوشمند

مدیریت استراتژیک هوشمند

بازآرایی سازمان در عصر تحول دیجیتال با رویکرد آینده‌پژوهی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده
دکتری مدیریت دولتی، گرایش تصمیم‌گیری و خط و مشی گذاری، واحد تهران مرکزی، تهران، ایران.
چکیده
با ظهور پارادایم تحول دیجیتال، سازمان‌ها در آستانه تغییراتی بنیادین در ساختارها، فرآیندها و مدل‌های حکمرانی خود قرار گرفته‌اند. این پژوهش با هدف واکاوی مسیرهای محتمل پیش روی سازمان‌ها در عصر تحول دیجیتال و شناسایی پیشران‌های کلیدی مؤثر بر آینده آن‌ها انجام شده است تا نقشه راهی برای مواجهه هوشمندانه با عدم‌قطعیت‌های پیش رو ترسیم نماید. این پژوهش از نظر هدف، کاربردی و با رویکرد آینده‌پژوهانه انجام شده است. جهت گردآوری داده‌ها، از جلسات طوفان فکری و کارگاه‌های مشارکتی با حضور خبرگان حوزه مدیریت و فناوری اطلاعات که به صورت هدفمند انتخاب شده بودند، استفاده شد. استراتژی اصلی پژوهش بر پایه روش سناریونویسی (مبتنی بر ماتریس عدم‌قطعیت) استوار است. در این راستا، پیشران‌های مستخرج بر اساس دو شاخص «میزان اثرگذاری» و «میزان عدم‌قطعیت» رتبه‌بندی شدند و در نهایت دو متغیر کلیدی «سطح مقررات‌گذاری» و «نرخ پذیرش تکنولوژی» به عنوان محورهای اصلی تشکیل ماتریس سناریو انتخاب گردیدند. تحلیل داده‌ها منجر به تدوین چهار سناریوی متمایز برای آینده سازمان در عصر تحول دیجیتال شد: ۱) قفس طلایی (حاکمیت مقررات سخت‌گیرانه همراه با پذیرش کند فناوری)، ۲) همکاری هوشمند (توازن میان نظارت‌های قانونی و پذیرش سریع ابزارهای دیجیتال)، ۳) آشوب دیجیتال (فقدان چارچوب‌های قانونی در کنار پذیرش ضعیف و پراکنده) و ۴) بهشت نوآوری (محیطی با مقررات حداقلی و شتاب بالای تحول دیجیتال). هر یک از این سناریوها، چالش‌ها و فرصت‌های متفاوتی را برای مدیران و سیاست‌گذاران سازمانی ترسیم می‌کنند.
کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات

عنوان مقاله English

Organizational Reconfiguration in the Era of Digital Transformation: A Futures Studies Approach

نویسنده English

Ruhollah Bahraini
PhD in Public Administration, Decision Making and Policy Making, Ct.C., Tehran, Iran.
چکیده English

With the emergence of the digital transformation paradigm, organizations are on the verge of fundamental changes in their structures, processes, and governance models. This study was conducted to explore the potential pathways facing organizations in the era of digital transformation and to identify the key drivers influencing their future, thereby developing a roadmap for intelligently addressing forthcoming uncertainties. In terms of its purpose, this study is applied and adopts a futures-oriented approach. Data were collected through brainstorming sessions and participatory workshops involving experts in the fields of management and information technology who were selected using purposive sampling. The main research strategy was based on the scenario planning method using an uncertainty matrix. Accordingly, the identified drivers were ranked based on two indicators: degree of impact and level of uncertainty. Ultimately, two key variables, level of regulation and rate of technology adoption, were selected as the principal axes for constructing the scenario matrix. Data analysis resulted in the development of four distinct scenarios for the future of organizations in the era of digital transformation: (1) Golden Cage, characterized by strict regulatory governance combined with slow technology adoption; (2) Smart Collaboration, reflecting a balance between regulatory oversight and rapid adoption of digital tools; (3) Digital Chaos, characterized by the absence of regulatory frameworks alongside weak and fragmented adoption; and (4) Innovation Paradise, representing an environment with minimal regulation and a high pace of digital transformation. Each of these scenarios outlines different challenges and opportunities for organizational managers and policymakers.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Organizational Reconfiguration, Digital Transformation, Futures Studies, Scenario Planning
Key Drivers
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